Water scarcity predicted to worsen in more than 80% of croplands
globally this century
Farming techniques that keep rainwater in agricultural soils could help mitigate shortages in arid regions

Date:
May 5, 2022
Source:
American Geophysical Union
Summary:
Agricultural water scarcity is expected to increase in more than
80% of the world's croplands by 2050, according to a new study.



FULL STORY ========================================================================== Agricultural water scarcity is expected to increase in more than 80%
of the world's croplands by 2050, according to a new study in the AGU
journal Earth's Future.


==========================================================================
The new study examines current and future water requirements for global agriculture and predicts whether the water levels available, either
from rainwater or irrigation, will be sufficient to meet those needs
under climate change. To do so, the researchers developed a new index to measure and predict water scarcity in agriculture's two major sources:
soil water that comes from rain, called green water, and irrigation from rivers, lakes and groundwater, called blue water. It's the first study
to apply this comprehensive index worldwide and predict global blue and
green water scarcity as a result of climate change.

"As the largest user of both blue and green water resources, agricultural production is faced with unprecedented challenges," said Xingcai Liu, an associate professor at the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and lead author of
the new study. "This index enables an assessment of agricultural water
scarcity in both rainfed and irrigated croplands in a consistent manner."
In the last 100 years, the demand for water worldwide has grown twice
as fast as the human population. Water scarcity is already an issue
on every continent with agriculture, presenting a major threat to food security. Despite this, most water scarcity models have failed to take
a comprehensive look at both blue and green water.

Green water is the portion of rainwater that is available to plants in the soil. A majority of precipitation ends up as green water, but it is often overlooked because it is invisible in the soil and can't be extracted
for other uses. The amount of green water available for crops depends
on the how much rainfall an area receives and how much water is lost
due to runoff and evaporation. Farming practices, vegetation covering
the area, the type of soil and the slope of the terrain can also have
an effect. As temperatures and rainfall patterns shift under climate
change, and farming practices intensify to meet the needs of the growing population, the green water available to crops will also likely change.

Mesfin Mekonnen, an assistant professor of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering at the University of Alabama who was not
involved in the study, said the work is "very timely in underlining the
impact of climate on water availability on crop areas." "What makes
the paper interesting is developing a water scarcity indicator taking
into account both blue water and green water," he said. "Most studies
focus on blue water resources alone, giving little consideration to the
green water."


==========================================================================
The researchers find that under climate change, global agricultural
water scarcity will worsen in up to 84% of croplands, with a loss of
water supplies driving scarcity in about 60% of those croplands.

Sowing solutions Changes in available green water, due to shifting precipitation patterns and evaporation caused by higher temperatures,
are now predicted to impact about 16% of global croplands. Adding this important dimension to our understanding of water scarcity could have implications for agricultural water management.

For example, Northeast China and the Sahel in Africa are predicted
to receive more rain, which may help alleviate agricultural water
scarcity. However, reduced precipitation in the midwestern U.S. and
northwest India may lead to increases in irrigation to support intense
farming.

The new index could help countries to assess the threat and causes of agricultural water scarcity and develop strategies to reduce the impact
of future droughts.

Multiple practices help conserve agricultural water. Mulching reduces evaporation from the soil, no-till farming encourages water to infiltrate
the ground and adjusting the timing of plantings can better align crop
growth with changing rainfall patterns. Additionally, contour farming,
where farmers till the soil on sloped land in rows with the same
elevation, prevents water runoff and soil erosion.

"Longer term, improving irrigation infrastructure, for example in Africa,
and irrigation efficiency would be effective ways to mitigate the effects
of future climate change in the context of growing food demand," Liu said.


========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by American_Geophysical_Union. Note:
Content may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Xingcai Liu, Wenfeng Liu, Qiuhong Tang, Bo Liu, Yoshihide Wada, Hong
Yang. Global Agricultural Water Scarcity Assessment Incorporating
Blue and Green Water Availability Under Future Climate
Change. Earth's Future, 2022; 10 (4) DOI: 10.1029/2021EF002567 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/05/220505143802.htm

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