120-year-old storm's secrets key to understanding weather risks

Date:
April 24, 2023
Source:
University of Reading
Summary:
The conversion of handwritten weather records into digital
information will help weather better understand future weather
risks.


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FULL STORY ==========================================================================
A severe windstorm that battered the UK more than a century ago produced
some of the strongest winds[OS1] that Britain has ever seen, a team of scientists have found after recovering old weather records.

Old weather measurements, first recorded on paper after Storm Ulysses
hit the UK in February 1903, have shed new light on what was one of the
most severe storms to have hit the British Isles.

By turning hand-written weather data into digital records, the research
team has laid the way to better understand other historical storms,
floods and heatwaves. These observations from the past can help experts
to understand the risks of extreme weather now and in the future.

Professor Ed Hawkins, a climate scientist at the University of Reading
and the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, led the research. He
said: "We knew the storm we analysed was a big one, but we didn't know
our rescued data would show that it is among the top four storms for
strongest winds across England and Wales.

"This study is a great example of how rescuing old paper records can
help us to better understand storms from decades gone by. Unlocking these secrets from the past could transform our understanding of extreme weather
and the risks they pose to us today." Into the archives Published today (Monday, 24 April) in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, the
research indicates that many storms that occurred before 1950 are left unstudied as billions of pieces of data exist only on paper, stored in
archives around the world.

But a team of scientists led by Professor Hawkins delved into the
archives to convert hand-written observations relating to Storm Ulysses
from paper to digital. The cyclone caused multiple deaths and heavily
damaged infrastructure and ships when it passed across Ireland and the
UK between 26 and 27 February 1903.

Using the new digital data, the research team was able to use techniques similar to modern weather forecasting to simulate the storm and accurately assess the strength of Storm Ulysses' winds. Comparisons with independent weather observations, such as rainfall data, as well as photographs and
written accounts from 1903 that outlined the devastation caused by the
cyclone, helped to provide credibility for the reconstruction.

The reanalysis is beneficial for understanding the risks of extreme
weather events as it showed that the winds experienced in some locations
during Storm Ulysses would be rarer than once in 100 years. Having
information about such a rare event provides valuable insight into the potential damage a similar storm could cause now in the future.

The 1903 storm is named Storm Ulysses because the damage to thousands
of trees in Dublin is mentioned in the novel Ulysses by James Joyce,
the events of which are set the year after the storm.

Rescuing the weather The rescuing of atmospheric observations related to
Storm Ulysses is not the first time Professor Ed Hawkins has led weather
record recovery. National rainfall data from as far back as 1836 became available in 2022 after the University's Department of Meteorology and
16,000 volunteers helped to restore 5.2 million observations.

The Rainfall Rescue project provided more context around recent changes
in rainfall due to human-caused climate change.

* RELATED_TOPICS
o Earth_&_Climate
# Severe_Weather # Weather # Storms # Geomagnetic_Storms
o Fossils_&_Ruins
# Early_Climate # Fossils # Origin_of_Life # Evolution
* RELATED_TERMS
o Severe_weather_terminology_(United_States)
o Weather_forecasting o Weather o Meteorology o
Numerical_weather_prediction o Storm_Prediction_Center o
National_Weather_Service o National_Hurricane_Center

========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by University_of_Reading. Note: Content
may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt,
Gilbert P.

Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki
Kuijjer, Oscar Marti'nez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew
P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, Joanne Williams. Rescuing historical
weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm
risks. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2023; 23 (4):
1465 DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/04/230424103422.htm

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