AXPZ20 KNHC 041931
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue May 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N81W to 11N103W to 08N119W.
The ITCZ continues from 08N119W to 05N131W to beyond 04N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to
11N between 93W and 102W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

W of Baja California, generally moderate NW winds are ongoing
with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Light breezes and slight seas are
evident across the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate W to NW
breezes prevail off southern Mexico, with 4 to 5 ft seas in
subsiding SW swell.

For the forecast, NW winds are diminishing off Baja California,
but NW swell will persist into Wed morning. Expect moderate NW
winds along with more NW swell off Baja California by the end of
week related to a weak cold front or trough moving into the
region. Looking ahead for southern Mexico, limited fresh to
strong NE Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind wind may occur Fri related
to low pressure farther south into the tropical waters. The low
pressure may bring increased winds and seas to the waters off
Oaxaca and Guerrero Fri and this weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds will persist throughout the Mexican offshore
waters through Sat.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail across most the region. Seas are
generally 4 to 6 ft in lingering southerly swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the
Gulf of Papagayo region are expected Thu through Sat night.
Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will continue for the next
several days over the Central American and Equatorial Pacific
offshore zones. Likewise, no significant long-period swell out of
the Southern Hemisphere is anticipated through the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A subtropical high pressure system centered north of the area
continues to supporting mainly moderate trades across the
forecast waters west of about 125W. Moderate to fresh NW to N
winds are noted on the east side of the high north of 26N and
east of 130W. Seas north of 26N and east of 130W range from 5 to
8 ft, due to northerly swell in the area. Elsewhere gentle to
moderate winds exist elsewhere with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed SW
and NW swell.

High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern
across the forecast region trough into mid week. Large northwest
swell and fresh to strong northerly winds will continue to
spread south of 30N and mainly between 120W and 130W into Wed,
then subside thereafter. Looking ahead, NW swell to 8 ft will
move into the waters north of 27N and west of 130W late Thu,
following a weakening cold front entering the waters north of
25N and west of 130W.

$$
KONARIK
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

AXPZ20 KNHC 051919
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed May 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N99W to 06N125W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N125W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 11N
between 90W and 112W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle mainly NW winds dominate this basin. Seas are 4
to 6 ft, except for 2 ft or less in the Gulf of California.
Smokey conditions may be ongoing over the near shore waters off
Guerrero and Michoacan.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate westerly winds will
generally persist into late week offshore Mexico. Fresh to
strong gap winds will develop Fri in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as
low pressure develops farther south, then tracks to the NW well
off the coast of southern Mexico. This pattern may also result in
increased winds and seas beyond 120 nm off the coast of Guerrero
and Michoacan from late Fri through Sun. Farther north, weak
ridging will support gentle to moderate NW winds and subsiding NW
swell through late week. Expect moderate NW winds along with
more NW swell off Baja California by the end of week related to a
weakening trough moving into the region.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail across most the region. Seas are
generally 4 to 6 ft in lingering southerly swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the
Gulf of Papagayo region are expected Fri through Sun. Elsewhere,
light to gentle breezes and moderate swell will continue for the
next several days over the region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate N winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in lingering NW swell are
ongoing north of 26N between 120W and 130W. Elsewhere a weak
subtropical ridge north of 20N is maintaining light to gentle
breezes north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, except for moderate
trade winds west of 130W. Moderate southerly winds are noted
south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough.

For the forecast, winds will increase along with additional
swell across the waters north of 25N starting Fri, accompanying a
weak cold front that dissipates as it moves eastward across the
region. Southerly swell east of 105W will subside into late week.

$$
KONARIK
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

AXPZ20 KNHC 091608
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jun 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 84W-85W extending from coastal Honduras
and Nicaragua across Costa Rica and into the eastern Pacific.
Associated moisture and scattered convection is occurring across
the Caribbean with and behind the wave, and along the eastern
Pacific monsoon trough.

A tropical wave is along 104W-105W south of 15N. Scattered to
numerous moderate to strong convection described below is along
the monsoon trough, and ahead of the wave between 107W and 110W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W to 09N83W to 1011 mb low
pressure near 11.5N93W to 11N100W to 1011 mb low pressure near
12.5N113W to 10N123W. The ITCZ reaches from 10N123W to 11N133W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection noted from 02N to
09N between 78W and 88W. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 88W and 105W.
Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 07N to 15N between 105W and 116W. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted from 05N to 08.5N between 135W and
141.5W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Generally moderate N-NW winds persist over the offshore waters
of Baja California, except for small areas of 20 kt winds across
the Baja Norte waters just north of 30N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in
lingering NW swell, with a few small areas to 8 ft per overnight
altimeter data. Light to gentle breezes and slight seas persist
across the Gulf of California. Forest and agricultural fires from
Michoacan to Sinaloa may be supporting areas of moderate smoke
and haze over adjacent offshore waters. Farther south, light to
gentle breezes and 3 to 4 ft seas persist off southern Mexico.

Building high pressure west of the area will support moderate to
fresh NW winds off Baja California and building seas off the
Baja California coast north of Cabo Lazaro starting tonight and
then diminishing by Sat. Light to gentle breeze will persist off
southern Mexico, with moderate SW swell.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

1011 mb low pressure was analyzed along the monsoon trough well
off the coast of El Salvador near 11.5N93W. This pattern is
supporting moderate SE to E winds off El Salvador and Guatemala,
which are converging with NE winds draining off the coast to
support a line of showers and thunderstorms about 150 nm off the
coast from roughly the Gulf of Papagayo to off western
Guatemala. Light to gentle SW breezes are evident elsewhere off
Central America. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell in most areas.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form a couple of
hundred miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico, El
Salvador, and Guatemala by Thursday. Environmental conditions
appear favorable for some gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form by the end of the week or over the weekend
as the system drifts generally northward. Regardless of
development, this system could produce heavy rainfall over
portions of Central America and southern Mexico later this week
and into the weekend. See products from your local meteorological
service for more information. Elsewhere, farther south, a new
round of large, long-period SW swell will reach Ecuadorian waters
by Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Ridging dominates the waters north of 20N west of 115W,
maintaining gentle to moderate breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas in NW
swell.

A broad upper trough extends roughly from 30N130W to 24N144W.
Divergence aloft on the southeast side of this upper trough is
supporting a weak surface trough from 06N to 12N between 132W and
134W, which shows up well in an overnight scatterometer
satellite pass from around 06 UTC, which also showed fresh NW
winds within 120 nm west of the trough. A concurrent altimeter
satellite pass indicated seas starting to approach 8 ft in this
area. A few showers are noted near this trough as well.

A small 1011 mb low pressure area persists near 12.5N113W.
Thunderstorms have been flaring for a few hours on the west side
of this low. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft
seas are noted from 05N to 20N west of 110W. Moderate to fresh SW
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident east of 110W.

A ridge will build across the northern forecast waters during
the next few days. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ will result in
moderate to locally fresh trade winds roughly N of the ITCZ to
about 20N and W of 125W through at least Fri, with seas of 5 to 8
ft. Looking ahead, lowering pressure off Central America will
support increased SW winds and building seas over the waters
mainly from 05N to 15N between 95W and 115W by late in the week.

$$
Stripling
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

AXPZ20 KNHC 101441
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jun 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1440 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of tropical wave is near 90/91W north of 03N. Scattered
moderate convection is observed N of 10N within 210 nm west of
the wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 1010 mb low pressure
centered near 12N115W to 09N125W. The ITCZ continues from
09N125W to 08N130W to 09N135W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 10N between 81W and 90W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 90W
and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N
between 105W and 112W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 114W and 120W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between
138W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong NW winds prevail off Baja California Norte with
seas to 5 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds are noted off Baja
California Sur. Light to gentle winds and slight seas persist
across the Gulf of California. Forest and agricultural fires from
Jalisco to Sinaloa may be supporting areas of moderate smoke and
haze over adjacent offshore waters. Farther south, light to
gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas persist off southern Mexico.
Divergence aloft on the southeast side of an upper trough is
supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms in the offshore
waters of Chiapas, Oaxaca and Guerrero.

For the forecast, A trough of low pressure is located several
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or
early next week while the system drifts generally northward.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could occur over
portions of Central America and southern Mexico late this week
and into early next week. See products from your local
meteorological service for more information. Elsewhere, high
pressure west of the area will support moderate to fresh NW winds
off Baja California and building seas in NW swell off the Baja
California coast north of Cabo San Lazaro into Sat.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light NE winds prevail north of 10N, with light to gentle W to
SW breezes south of 10N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell in most
areas. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are noted mainly off
Guatemala and Nicaragua.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is expected to
form a couple of hundred miles south of the coasts of southern
Mexico and Guatemala during the next day or two. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for some gradual development
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form this weekend
while the system drifts generally northward. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall could occur over portions of Central
America and southern Mexico late this week and into the weekend.
See products from your local meteorological service for more
information. Elsewhere, light and variable winds will prevail
north of 10N, with gentle to moderate SW winds south of 10N. A
new round of long- period SW swell will reach Ecuadorian waters
by Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1010 mb area of low pressure persists near 12N115W, embedded
within the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is within 210 nm west and 90 nm east of the low.
Gentle to moderate winds surround the low. Some gradual development
is possible over the next few days as the system moves slowly
westward.

Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted from 10N
to 15N west of 135W, with seas of 8 to 9 ft in this area.
Moderate to fresh NE winds persist elsewhere north of the ITCZ
and monsoon trough and west of 120W with 5 to 7 ft seas.
Gentle to moderate SE winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are noted south
of the ITCZ, while gentle to moderate SW winds are noted south of
the monsoon trough.

Looking ahead, lowering pressure off Central America will
support increased W to SW winds and building seas over the
waters mainly from 05N to 15N between 95W and 115W by late in the
week.

$$
AL
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

AXPZ20 KNHC 151602
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Oct 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong N to NE gap
winds are blowing in the Tehuantepec region per earlier scatterometer
data. These winds will briefly diminish this afternoon, then
return early Fri morning. The current 8 ft peak seas will subside
some through this afternoon. Winds will increase to gale force
Fri night through Sat night, then will be fresh to strong
thereafter. Seas should peak with this gale event near 15 ft
late Fri night and Sat morning and remain at least 8 ft through
at least Mon night.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 93W from 02N northward to near
Chiapas Mexico, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm E of the wave axis from 12N-15N.

A tropical wave axis is near 115W/116W from 01N to 17N, moving W
at 15 kt. No significant convection is present near the wave.

A tropical wave axis is near 129W/130W from 02N to 19N, moving W
at 15 kt. Convection associated with this wave is confined to
where it intersects the monsoon trough.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 10N86W to
08N94W to 12N115W to 10N134W. The ITCZ axis extends from 10N134W
to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is offshore
of Oaxaca Mexico from 11N-15.5N between 95W-99W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14W between 123W-134W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on
the developing Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

The remnant low of Norbert is a 1011 mb low near 26N116W.
Convection has completely disappeared, and maximum sustained
winds have decreased to less than 20 kt.

Moderate to fresh NW winds have developed offshore of SW Mexico
up through the S Gulf of California as indicated by overnight
scatterometer data with the strongest winds near Cabo Corrientes.
These winds are spreading northwest to the central Gulf of
California and offshore of Baja California Sur, and will then
spread to off Baja California Norte Fri and Fri night while
diminishing elsewhere. Seas should remain just below 8 ft with
these winds.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds will be light to gentle north of the monsoon trough,
except for moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the Papagayo region
Fri night and Sat night. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are
expected south of the monsoon trough for the next few days
becoming fresh on Sun night. Mainly moderate 5 to 7 ft long-
period S swell will prevail across the waters through the
weekend. Seas will build in southerly swell Sun night through Mon
night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be common in the
Central American zones due to the proximity of the monsoon
trough for at least the next couple of days as is described
above.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A moderate pressure gradient due to high pressure well N of the
discussion waters and low pressure from the ITCZ is producing
generally moderate to fresh E trades west of 125W. Troughing to
develop west of Baja California should weaken the trades
slightly Fri through Sun, with the winds returning by the end of
the weekend into early next week.

Lingering mixed swell continues today north of 25N and west of
120W. A reinforcing set of northerly swell will move across this
same area tonight into the weekend.

Moderate monsoonal flow is noted across the remainder of the
area on both sides of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5 to 8 ft in
mixed swell dominates the remainder of the waters.

$$
Hagen
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

AXPZ20 KNHC 022043
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Oct 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Category Four Hurricane Marie is centered near 16.9N 125.0W at 02/2100
UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
948 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140
kt. Additional strengthening is expected this evening, with
weakening forecast to begin on Saturday. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted within 150 nm of center all quadrants
except 120 nm southwest quadrant. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge across the western
Gulf of Mexico and eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains
in Mexico combined with Tropical Depression Twenty- Five in the
NW Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong northerly
winds over the Bay of Campeche. These winds are funneling through
the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, producing strong
gale force winds of 35-40 kt in the Tehuantepec region. These gap
winds are forecast to persist into Sat, with minimal gale
conditions prevailing through Mon. Seas will peak near 15-18 ft
during this event. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 10N106W, then resumes
W of Major Hurricane Marie near 10N127W to 09N136W. The ITCZ is
from 09N136W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 14N between 85W and 103W and from 12N to 19N
between 109W and 113W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec
Gale Warning. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will
dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California under a
weak pressure gradient. By Mon night, a ridge will establish
again over the area, bringing gentle to moderate NW winds. Seas
generated by Hurricane Marie will continue to spread across the
waters W of Baja California into Sat. Gentle southerly winds are
expected in the Gulf of California into the start of next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of
the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it.
Seas generated by the gale-force gap winds in the Tehuantepec
region will continue to propagate across the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador into the start of next week

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for more information
on Category Four Hurricane Marie.

Outside of Major Hurricane Marie, a weak ridge prevails over the
NW corner of the forecast area. The pressure gradient between
this ridge and Hurricane is maintaining gentle to moderate winds
N of the monsoon trough to about 25N, and gentle to moderate
winds S of the monsoon trough. The large size of Hurricane Marie
will generate a large area of seas greater than 8 ft which will
spread well away from the cyclone center. By Saturday, seas
greater than 8 ft will cover much of the waters N of 10N and W of
115W. Long period southern hemispheric swell may move northward
across the equator at the start of next week.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico this weekend.
Some development of this system is possible early next week while
it moves west at 5 to 10 kt. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook
gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
through 5 days.

$$
KONARIK
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

AXPZ20 KNHC 030916
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Oct 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Powerful Hurricane Marie is centered near 17.9N 126.4W at
03/0900 UTC moving NW at 8 kt, and this motion is expected to
continue through the weekend. A turn to the west-northwest is
expected by Monday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 948
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt.
Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. The hurricane is forecast to begin weakening later
today, and this weakening trend should continue into early next
week. Marie is expected to be a tropical storm by Sun night.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for
more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge across the western
Gulf of Mexico and eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains
in Mexico combined with Tropical Storm Gamma in the NW Caribbean
will continue to support fresh to strong northerly winds over
the Bay of Campeche. These winds are funneling through the Chivela
Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, producing gale force winds in
the Tehuantepec region. A recent scatterometer pass provided
observations of minimal gale force winds across the area, with
fresh to strong N-NE winds extending farther S to near 12N97W.
This gap wind event will persist through Mon night as T.S. Gamma
moves just N of the Yucatan Peninsula. Expect the strongest winds
of 35-40 kt during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas
will peak near 16-17 ft early this morning, then will gradually
subside to 8-10 ft by Tue night. Please read the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The tropical wave that spawned T.S. Gamma now extends along 89W
N of 03N. The wave is helping to induce some convective activity
over the regional waters of Nicaragua and El Salvador, mainly N
of 12N between 87W and 91W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N87W to 10N95W to 1009 mb low
pres near 08N102W to 11N108W, then resumes W of Hurricane Marie
near 13N125W to 09N136W. The ITCZ is from 09N136W to beyond
10N140W. Scattered moderate convection isolated strong convection
is noted from 04N to 08N E of 80W, from 08N to 12N between 85W
and 89W, from 06N to 10N between 100W and 111W, and from 12N to
15N between 98W and 103W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec
Gale Warning. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will
dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California under a
weak pressure gradient. By Mon night, a ridge will establish
again over the area, bringing gentle to moderate NW winds. Seas
generated by Hurricane Marie will continue to spread across the
waters W of Baja California through early Sun. Light to gentle
southerly winds are expected in the Gulf of California into the
start of next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are expected S of
the monsoon trough with mainly light to gentle winds N of it.
Seas generated by the gale-force gap winds in the Tehuantepec
region will continue to propagate across the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador into the beginning of next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for more information
on Category Four Hurricane Marie.

Outside of Major Hurricane Marie, a weak ridge prevails over the
NW corner of the forecast area. The pressure gradient between
this ridge and Marie is maintaining gentle to moderate winds N
of the monsoon trough to about 28N, and gentle to moderate winds
S of the monsoon trough. The large size of Hurricane Marie will
generate a large area of seas greater than 8 ft which will spread
well away from the cyclone center. By this afternoon, seas greater
than 8 ft will cover much of the waters N of 10N and W of 115W.
Long period SE swell from the Southern Hemisphere is forecast to
reach the equator by Mon.

An area of low pressure is expected to form within the next couple
of days several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern
Mexico. Some development of this system is possible through the
middle of next week while it moves slowly northwestward.

Another area of low pressure could form south or southeast of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. Gradual development of this
system will be possible thereafter while it drifts near or south of
southern coasts of Mexico and Guatemala. Currently, marine guidance
suggests increasing winds across the offshore waters of Guatemala
and El Salvador early next week. The latest Tropical Weather
Outlook states that these systems have a low chance of tropical
cyclone formation through 5 days.

$$
GR
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)