ACUS03 KWNS 050728
SWODY3
SPC AC 050727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Wed May 05 2021

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong thunderstorms may impact a small portion of the
central Great Plains late Friday afternoon and evening, posing some
risk for severe hail and strong surface gusts.

...Synopsis...
Models suggest that a blocking mid-level high, centered over the
Labrador Sea, will be maintained through this period. It appears
that this will continue to preclude the eastward progression of the
broad mid-level low to its west-southwest. However, there may be
some southward redevelopment of the circulation center to the west
and southwest of James Bay, in response to a perturbation pivoting
around its periphery. And large-scale mid-level troughing to its
south, initially encompassing much of the eastern U.S., may begin to de-amplify, as a consolidating short wave impulse accelerates east-northeastward across the southern Mid Atlantic coast into the
western Atlantic. It appears that this will occur as ridging within
the southern branch of splitting upstream flow overspreads the
central and southern Great Plains, in advance of elongating
large-scale mid-level troughing progressing across the Intermountain West/Rockies.

In lower-levels, substantive lower/mid tropospheric drying may
continue through much of the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico,
across the remainder of the Florida peninsula, and well east of the
Atlantic Seaboard. Despite deepening surface troughing east of the
Colorado Front Range into south central portions of the Great
Plains, substantive low-level moistening from the western Gulf of
Mexico may only reach the lower Rio Grande Valley vicinity by late
Friday night. However, steep lapse rates, aided by insolation
beneath a plume of seasonably cold mid-level air across parts of the
East, and aided by seasonable surface heating beneath cooling aloft
across parts of the Intermountain West into Rockies, will contribute
to the risk for thunderstorms Friday into Friday night.

...Parts of central Great Plains...
In the presence of steepening lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates,
various model output suggests that boundary-layer moistening
associated with evaporation/transpiration may contribute to CAPE on
the order of 500-1000 J/kg by late Friday afternoon. It appears
that this will become focused near/east of a developing surface low
within lee surface troughing, where low-level convergence and
low/mid-level warm advection may support scattered thunderstorm
development. Deep-layer shear, largely due to pronounced veering of
winds with height in low to mid-levels, may become sufficient to
support a supercell structure or two. Severe hail and localized
strong surface gusts appear the primary potential hazards, and
activity could grow upscale into a small organized cluster before
weakening late Friday evening.

..Kerr.. 05/05/2021

$$
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ACUS03 KWNS 070725
SWODY3
SPC AC 070724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Fri May 07 2021

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms appear possible on Sunday from
parts of central/east Texas to the Mid-South.

...Southern Plains to the Mid-South and Lower Ohio Valley...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough should advance from the
southern/central Plains to the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH
Valley through Sunday evening. A weak surface low over southwestern
MO Sunday morning is forecast to develops towards the lower OH
Valley in the same time frame, while a trailing cold front moves
southeastward across parts of central/east TX, AR, and the
Mid-South. A strong southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to shift
quickly eastward from the Mid-South vicinity to the OH Valley by
Sunday afternoon.

Mainly elevated storms will probably be ongoing Sunday morning
across portions of southern MO/IL in the warm advection regime
associated with the low-level jet. In the wake of this early
activity, low-level moisture should increase ahead of the
southeastward-moving cold front. Mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints
appear likely to be in place across much of the warm sector by
Sunday afternoon. Diurnal heating of this moist low-level airmass
should foster moderate to potentially strong instability ahead of
the front, particularly across central/east TX into parts of
northern LA and much of AR. Even though large-scale ascent across
this region may remain fairly muted, most guidance indicates
convection will develop along the cold front. Forecast deep-layer
shear appears strong enough to support organized severe storms, with
both large hail and damaging straight-line winds possible. Upscale
growth into a line along the front may also occur. These storms
should eventually weaken with eastward extent across the lower MS
Valley as they outpace the better low-level moisture return and
encounter a less unstable airmass.

Farther north across parts of the mid MS Valley into the Lower OH
Valley, instability should be weaker owing to the influence of the
morning convection and slightly less low-level moisture return.
Still, the presence of low to perhaps mid 60s surface dewpoints
along and just east of the weak surface low suggest some potential
for surface-based convection across this region. Various forecast
soundings indicate strong shear in the low levels, but weak to
minimal instability. Although some severe threat may materialize
across parts of southern IL/IN into western/central KY Sunday afternoon/evening, this potential currently appears too limited to
include any more than a Marginal Risk for these areas.

..Gleason.. 05/07/2021

$$
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ACUS03 KWNS 090657
SWODY3
SPC AC 090656

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Wed Jun 09 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO WESTERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts may occur Friday from northeast Kansas
into western Iowa.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A compact, negative-tilt shortwave trough will move quickly out of
the Dakotas and into Canada by 18Z with height rises across the
Plains for the remainder of the period. At the surface, a cold
front/outflow composite boundary is expected to be over the eastern
Dakotas Friday morning, trailing southwest into KS and the TX
Panhandle.

A very moist and unstable air mass will remain ahead of this front
from NE/IA into the southern Plains, but capping will increase
roughly south of I-70. Storms will possibly be ongoing over eastern
NE Friday morning, and several models indicate activity persisting
during the day and turning southeastward. While uncertainty
inherently exists due to outflow-boundary timing, strong instability
with 70s F dewpoints is likely, which will support strong wind
gusts.

Elsewhere, morning activity farther north into ND and MN is expected
to weaken with time behind the rapidly departing upper trough.

..Jewell.. 06/09/2021

$$
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ACUS03 KWNS 100728
SWODY3
SPC AC 100727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated storms may produce hail over northeast New Mexico and
southeast Colorado Saturday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
On Saturday, an upper high will be centered over NM, with height
rises over the Rockies near the upper ridge. Strong northwest flow
aloft will develop from ND and MN toward the upper Great Lakes
overnight as a low-amplitude shortwave trough rounds the upper
ridge. Meanwhile, low heights will persist over the Mid Atlantic and
Southeast, with weak midlevel northerlies across the OH and TN
Valleys southward to the northern Gulf of Mexico.

At the surface, a moist and unstable air mass will remain over the
central and southern Plains, and the middle and lower MS Valley.
Weak low pressure is forecast over GA and SC where heights will be
lower, but midlevel temperatures will not be particularly cool, and
shear will be weak. Therefore, diurnal storm development near the
surface trough is not expected to be severe.

To the west, MUCAPE will likely exceed 4000 J/kg over parts of OK
and north TX by late afternoon, but little to no lift is expected
due to upper ridging. However, steep lapse rates aloft and moisture
near 700 mb may support areas of elevated convection from western OK
into the TX Panhandle.

As low-level moisture backs westward into NM, there will be a
greater chance of a few strong to severe storms.

...Southeast CO into northeast NM...
High pressure over the central Plains will weaken during the day as
heating occurs, with southeast surface winds developing over the
central and southern High Plains. This will allow 55-60 F dewpoints
to spread westward, resulting in at least 1500 J/kg MUCAPE over
southeast CO and northeast NM. CIN will be completely removed over
the higher terrain, with isolated storms possible by late afternoon.
Effective shear will only average near 30 kt, but steep lapse rates
will favor robust updrafts with marginal hail risk. Capping, as well
as slow storm motion off the high terrain, will limit eastward
extent of the severe risk, but a storm or two could approach western
parts of the OK and TX Panhandles late.

..Jewell.. 06/10/2021

$$
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ACUS03 KWNS 150723
SWODY3
SPC AC 150722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
contiguous United States on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A highly amplified upper trough should move northeastward across New
England on Saturday. Strong low-level warm advection ahead of this
feature may support a couple elevated storms across parts of the
immediate New England coast through the early afternoon, but
instability is expected to remain rather weak.

Farther south, convection may develop along sea breeze boundaries
across parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula. A decelerating
cold front across this region will likely serve as the northern
delimiter of thunderstorm potential. Weak deep-layer shear should
preclude an organized severe risk.

Low-level moisture is forecast to increase Saturday night across the
southern Plains and perhaps lower MS Valley as another shortwave
trough embedded within embedded within west-northwesterly mid-level
flow advances eastward from the northern/central Plains into the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. However, elevated thunderstorm potential
appears highly uncertain, so have not included a general
thunderstorm area at this time.

..Gleason.. 10/15/2020

$$
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ACUS03 KWNS 020641
SWODY3
SPC AC 020640

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
Mid/upper flow across much of North America appears likely to
continue to trend less amplified; but, models indicate that
large-scale ridging will persist across the eastern mid-latitude
Pacific into western North America, with large-scale troughing east
of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard. Embedded within this
regime, there may be several short wave perturbations comprising
more substantive troughing across the Upper Midwest into the lower
Missouri Valley at the outset of the period. This is forecast to
remain progressive, as a vigorous upstream short wave impulse digs
across the Canadian Prairies. However, models indicate that the
smaller-scale perturbations may trend out of phase. The southern
portion of the remnant troughing may become most prominent, with
perhaps the most vigorous impulse pivoting across parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the southern Appalachians Sunday through
Sunday night.

A reinforcing low-level cool intrusion and subsidence in the wake of
the lead mid-level troughing probably will contribute to
diminishment of initially low convective potential over the interior
U.S. Sunday. There could still be some lingering risk for
convection capable of producing lightning, beneath the mid-level
cold pool across parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Appalachians. However, model spread concerning the smaller-scale
mid-level perturbations is sizable. Coupled with the weak nature of
the potential instability, and probable sparse thunderstorm
coverage, any risk for thunderstorms at this point still seems less
than 10 percent.

Otherwise, seasonably moist conditions likely will remain confined
to a narrow plume along a remnant frontal zone across the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico into areas near/east of the southern Mid
Atlantic coast. This may contribute to at least low probabilities
for thunderstorms across parts of the Florida Peninsula; but, models
indicate that substantive boundary-layer moisture and instability
will remain confined to areas near and east of the
southeastern/eastern Florida Atlantic coast.

..Kerr.. 10/02/2020

$$
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ACUS03 KWNS 030631
SWODY3
SPC AC 030630

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Monday through Monday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that broad mid-level ridging within the mid-latitude
westerlies will develop inland of the Pacific coast, across and east
of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies during this period.
Downstream flow across much of the remainder of the northern and
central tier of the U.S. appears likely to remain more or less
zonal, with a number of embedded, progressive short wave troughs.
This includes one significant perturbation forecast to accelerate
east of the northern Mid Atlantic coast, and support further surface
wave development along a front across the western Atlantic.

In the wake of these features, mid-level subtropical ridging may
become a bit more prominent across Florida and the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico. In lower levels, models suggest that the surface frontal
zone will weaken and redevelop northward across the Peninsula into
northern Florida. As the boundary layer continues to moisten,
destabilization aided by daytime heating across parts of the
Peninsula may contribute to at least some potential for a few
thunderstorms Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere, generally dry and/or stable conditions are expected to
prevail, with negligible risk for thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr.. 10/03/2020

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