ACUS48 KWNS 020743
SWOD48
SPC AC 020741

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Large-scale mid-level ridging appears likely to persist within the
westerlies across the northern mid-latitude eastern Pacific into
western North America through the middle of next week, with broad
downstream troughing east of the Rockies into the western Atlantic.
Toward the middle of next week, there could be some re-amplification
of the ridging along an axis near the Canadian/U.S. Rockies, ahead
of a large developing mid-level trough approaching the Pacific
Coast. As this occurs, the large-scale downstream troughing may
amplify along a negatively tilted axis from Hudson Bay into western
Atlantic.

While embedded short wave developments remain much more uncertain,
this regime appears likely to maintain a west-northwesterly to
northwesterly mid-level flow across much of the nation. The
development of a southerly return flow of moisture off the Gulf of
Mexico appears unlikely, maintaining generally dry and/or stable
conditions with low convective potential.

..Kerr.. 10/02/2020
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ACUS48 KWNS 030803
SWOD48
SPC AC 030802

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to indicate that initially broad
large-scale ridging, across the northern mid-latitude eastern
Pacific into western Northern America, may undergo amplification
while shifting eastward during the early to middle portion of the
coming work week. As this occurs, a significant short wave impulse,
digging within increasingly northwesterly flow to its east, appears
likely to contribute to substantive trough amplification along a
negatively tilted axis from the Hudson Bay vicinity into the western
Atlantic by late next week. This probably will be accompanied by
another substantive cold intrusion across the Great Lakes into the
Northeast, and a building surface ridge beneath increasingly
confluent mid-level flow, east of the Mississippi Valley and across
much of the Gulf Coast states. This should maintain/reinforce
generally dry and stable boundary-layer conditions across all but
the Florida Peninsula. Even if trends depicted in the latest
(03/00Z) ECMWF (which include the faster inland progression of a
significant mid-level trough on the leading edge of a strong zonal
flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, and deeper surface
troughing across the higher plains by early next weekend) are
correct, convective potential appears low through this period.

..Kerr.. 10/03/2020
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