ACUS01 KWNS 041631
SWODY1
SPC AC 041629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Tue May 04 2021

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MS TO WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST AL...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous to widespread damaging winds and a few tornadoes are
expected through this evening across the Deep South.

...TX to the Southeast...
Complex forecast this afternoon into the evening with several
clusters of ongoing convection from southeast TX to the southern
Appalachians. A moist and moderate to strongly unstable air mass
exists across a broad region ahead of this activity. As noted in 12Z
regional observed soundings, this is where an elevated mixed
layer/plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is established atop
rich boundary layer moisture with surface dew points in the low 70s
that precedes an eastward-moving cold front located near the
ArkLaTex and southeast Texas.

Influenced by the progressive southern stream shortwave trough,
storms should expand in coverage/intensity this afternoon with a
corresponding uptick in wind damage potential expected aside from a
persistent severe hail risk. Strengthening belt of southwesterly low/mid-tropospheric winds will support organized storms including
growth into multiple quasi-linear MCSs. Widespread damaging winds,
some significant, and brief tornadoes will be possible with the
primary QLCS that is expected to evolve across the Lower MS Valley
into AL.

...Mid-Atlantic States...
With a portion of the elevated mixed-layer present across parts of
the region as sampled by the 12Z GSO/RNK soundings, destabilization
will be pronounced today as nearly full insolation is occurring east
of the Appalachians. An MCV will probably emanate east-northeast out
of an MCS that has weakened over the southern Appalachians. The net
result should be the potential for scattered damaging winds from
strong to isolated severe gusts as multicell clusters spread towards
the Mid-Atlantic Coast.

...Mid-South to Lower OH Valley...
Partial clearing is underway ahead of the mid-level shortwave trough
over the Ozarks. This should contribute to sufficient recovery for a
threat of isolated to scattered large hail and damaging winds
downstream of this trough, along the eastward-moving cold front.

..Grams/Moore.. 05/04/2021

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 051631
SWODY1
SPC AC 051629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Wed May 05 2021

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...AND SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Through this evening, isolated severe wind gusts and hail are
possible across a portion of the central and southern High Plains,
and isolated damaging winds and small hail are possible across a
portion of the Lower Mid-Atlantic and Southeast States.

...Central/southern High Plains...
A surface cold front trails in an arc to the south/southwest of a
weak 1017-mb cyclone over central SD. Low-level lapse rates will
become quite steep ahead of this front across the southern High
Plains. Initial low-topped thunderstorm development is expected
within the post-frontal regime along the Front Range and spread
southeast within a belt of 40-60 kt 500-mb northwesterlies.
High-based thunderstorms may also develop close to the surface front
by early evening. Although overall moisture content will be limited,
an elongated mid/upper-level portion of the hodograph in conjunction
with the well-mixed boundary layer may foster a couple high-based
supercells capable of isolated severe wind and hail. Convection will
weaken after sunset given the meager buoyancy amid increasing MLCIN.

...Delmarva to NC...
A broad swath of stratiform rain is ongoing across the Mid-Atlantic
just ahead of an eastward-advancing shortwave trough. A surface cold
front trails to the southwest of this across the VA/NC Piedmont and
pronounced boundary-layer heating should persist ahead of it. Poor mid/upper-level lapse rates sampled in area 12Z soundings will be a
much more limiting factor to severe thunderstorm development
compared with yesterday's favorable profile across the region.
Nevertheless, convergence along the front coupled with peak surface
heating may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms with strong
gusty winds capable of tree damage.

...Southeast...
Slow southward progression of general thunderstorms have persisted
along and just offshore of the central Gulf Coast through midday.
Associated cloud debris to its north will limit potential for severe
storms in this region. Farther east, moderate boundary-layer heating
is underway beneath breaks in the cirrus canopy across the eastern
FL Panhandle towards southern SC. Low-level flow will remain
decidedly westerly, limiting convergence along the trailing cold
front and any remnant convective outflows. Will maintain a cat
1/MRGL risk for a portion of the region where a strong storm or two
is still plausible later this afternoon into the early evening.

..Grams/Smith.. 05/05/2021

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 071628
SWODY1
SPC AC 071627

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Fri May 07 2021

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE OK AN NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe gusts will be possible this afternoon/evening across
the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles.

...Southern/central High Plains this afternoon into late evening...
Surface heating and deep mixing will promote high-based thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon along a lee trough from southeast
WY into southeast CO and eastern NM, with the more probable area for development along and east of the Raton Mesa. The storms will tend
to cluster more and persist longer across the OK Panhandle toward
northwest OK along a diffuse baroclinic zone, where a nocturnal
low-level jet will maintain stronger low-level warm advection.
MLCAPE may only reach 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon, but deep
inverted-V profiles with DCAPE of 1200-1500 J/kg will favor strong
downdrafts and the potential for outflow gusts near or above 50 kt.
Steep midlevel lapse rates may also support hail near 1" diameter
with the stronger updrafts.

...Southeast FL coast later this afternoon...
A surface cold front will continue to move slowly southward from
central into south FL through this evening. Low-level westerly flow
ahead of the front will act to keep the sea breeze close to the
Atlantic coast, with at least isolated storm development more
probable from mid-late afternoon along the southeast FL coast (near
Miami). MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, effective bulk shear of 20-25 kt,
and stronger flow aloft for storm venting, will support a threat for
isolated damaging outflow gusts and/or marginally severe hail with
multicell clusters for a few hours later this evening/evening.

...Southern MT vicinity this afternoon/evening...
A pronounced midlevel trough and associated surface cold front will
move eastward from WA/OR to the northern Rockies this afternoon into
tonight. Surface heating/mixing ahead of the front will support
steep lapse rates and weak buoyancy, which could be sufficient for
isolated storms with strong outflow gusts later this
afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be sufficient for organized
clusters or low-end supercells, with an attendant threat for
isolated hail near 1" diameter.

...NC/VA this afternoon...
A cluster of storms that produced hail near 1" diameter this morning
across southern NC is now moving offshore in association with an
embedded shortwave trough/jet streak over the Carolinas. In the
wake of this convection, buoyancy will be limited by poor lapse
rates and marginal moisture, and low-midlevel vertical shear will be
weak to the north of the jet. As such, it appears that any threat
for severe storms is too low to warrant maintaining a MRGL area for
the remainder of this outlook period.

...OH Valley this afternoon/evening...
On the southern periphery of a deep midlevel low over ON/QC, an
embedded shortwave trough will rotate east-southeastward from IL as
of late morning to IN/OH this afternoon. The midlevel trough will
be accompanied by a reinforcing cold front, which will help focus
forcing for ascent in a narrow zone ahead of the midlevel trough.
Though low-level moisture is quite limited (upper 30s boundary-layer dewpoints), surface heating will boost SBCAPE to 100-250 J/kg along
and just ahead of the front this afternoon. Steep low-level lapse
rates will encourage strong downdrafts and some momentum transfer,
while cool midlevel temperatures (near -27 C at 500 mb) might
support 0.5 to 1" hail with semi-organized cells/cluster (given
effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt for the low-topped convection).

..Thompson/Moore.. 05/07/2021

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 091635
SWODY1
SPC AC 091634

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Wed Jun 09 2021

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected particularly across
western/northern Montana, but other isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms will also be possible across the Lower Mississippi
Valley, Eastern States, and possibly the southern High Plains and
Upper Midwest.

...Montana...
Widely scattered thunderstorms should develop late this afternoon
and evening, initially over higher terrain of southwestern Montana
and nearby Idaho, then in areas northeastward across
northwestern/north-central Montana through the evening. Some of this
activity should evolve into supercells, offering damaging gusts and
large hail (potentially in excess of 2 inches in diameter) along
with the possibility of a tornado. Bowing clusters are possible,
which would enhanced the damaging wind risk, potentially including
some significant-caliber wind gusts.

A substantial easterly component of low-level flow, north and east
of the cyclogenesis area, will advect higher theta-e into the region
in support of convective potential. Though the source region over
the western Dakotas and eastern Montana includes a convectively
processed boundary layer, surface dew points in the 50s F should
become common over northern Montana. Diurnal heating and a
steepening of low-level lapse rates, beneath steep mid-level lapse
rates of around 8 deg C/km, will support MLCAPE around 1000-1500
J/kg. Meanwhile, gradually strengthening mid/upper flow and
relatively backed near-surface winds will support effective-shear
magnitudes of 45-55 kt, particularly across west-central/northern
Montana.

...West Texas/western Oklahoma...
While the likelihood and coverage are far from certain, it still
seems that isolated to widely scattered, slow-moving, high-based
thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into this evening.
This would be in a narrow corridor near the dryline from the Big
Bend/Davis Mountains north-northeastward to the eastern
Panhandle/far western Oklahoma. That said, the most probable area
for development late this afternoon/early evening may be across the
Texas South Plains/Low Rolling Plains vicinity where low-level
convergence should maximize. If/where storms do occur across the
region, isolated instances of severe hail/wind will be a distinct
possibility given the robust buoyancy and steep lapse rate
environment.

...Northern Minnesota/northeast North Dakota...
While the peak/most probable severe risk will likely be north of the International border, at least isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms may redevelop across the region later this afternoon
into tonight on the southern periphery of advancing shortwave trough
and in vicinity of the cold front or nearby triple point. Where
storms do form, 25-35 kt effective shear in conjunction with
moderate buoyancy could support some severe storms capable of
hail/wind.

...ArkLaMiss/Lower Mississippi Valley...
The boundary layer will moderately to strongly destabilize
(2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) this afternoon particularly across the
ArkLaMiss vicinity, on the south/southwest periphery of persistent
heavy rainfall/residual cloud cover from yesterday. Cyclonically
curved westerlies along with possible weak MCV
influences/differential heating will aid thunderstorm development
within the moist/unstable air mass. Thermodynamic conditions will
support the potential, if not likelihood, of wet microbursts capable
of localized wind damage across the region this afternoon through
around sunset.

...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States...
A moist/moderately unstable air mass will across a broad north-south
region in vicinity of a surface trough as well as to the south of a southward-advancing cold front across New York/Pennsylvania into
southern New England. While low/mid-troposphere winds will be weak
(southern New England an exception), a diurnal steepening of
low-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy may support downbursts
capable of localized damaging winds. Somewhat more
sustained/organized storms in terms of southeastward-moving clusters
could materialize across southeast New England and/or southeast
Virginia and northeast North Carolina during the mid/late afternoon
through early evening.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 06/09/2021

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 101650
SWODY1
SPC AC 101649

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely late this afternoon and
tonight across much of the northern and central Plains, especially
across eastern Montana, the Dakotas, and Nebraska. All severe
hazards are possible, including very large hail, wind gusts above 70
mph, and a few tornadoes.

...Northern/central Plains including Dakotas/Nebraska/E Montana...
An active severe-weather day is expected across the region late this
afternoon and tonight and have upgraded parts of the western Dakotas
to a categorical Moderate Risk, with much of this regional risk
expected to persist well through the late-night hours.

12Z upper-air analysis/soundings essentially sampled near-record
moisture content by early/mid-June standards across the High Plains
in terms of mean mixing ratios/850mb dewpoints, including locations
such as Dodge City/North Platte/Rapid City/Bismarck/Glasgow Montana,
although mid-level/700 mb temperatures were notably warm
(near-record values) at these locations as well.

Thunderstorms should develop initially this afternoon into early
evening near the surface low and adjoining frontal segments over
eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Supercells capable of all
hazards (tornado, large to giant hail, severe wind gusts) are
expected in the first few hours of the convective cycle. This should
be followed by a transition to one or more organized convective
complexes with a dominant destructive-wind hazard, with isolated
severe hail and possibly some tornado threat. During and after that
transition, very damaging gusts to hurricane force may be observed
through the evening and possibly the early overnight hours.

Very steep mid-level lapse rates will overlie a corridor of
moist/theta-e advection and diurnal heating south of the warm front
and east of the low/cold front. This will contribute to MLCAPE
strengthening into the 2000-3000 J/kg range (locally higher), amidst intensifying deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes reaching 35-50
kt). Low-level shear should be maximized along the warm front and
east of the surface low across eastern Montana and western North
Dakota.

Farther south across portions of South Dakota/Nebraska and perhaps
northeast Colorado, high-based supercells should form late this
afternoon/early evening near the dryline/lee trough, offering
significant hail and severe gusts. However, this activity may evolve
upscale more quickly to a QLCS configuration with a dominant wind
threat. Deep, well-mixed sub-cloud layers will support maintenance
of both severe hail and gusts to the surface during earlier,
relatively discrete stages, but also, foster quick cold-pool
aggregations and rapid expansion. Forced ascent of a foregoing
boundary layer containing 60s to near 70 F surface dew points, with
MLCAPE commonly remaining above 2000 J/kg even well after sunset,
will help to drive the severe-wind threat southeastward over much of
Nebraska tonight.

...Northern Wisconsin/Upper Michigan...
Widely scattered thunderstorms -- some in clusters -- are expected
to develop by late afternoon/early evening within a weakly capped
air mass characterized by favorably rich moisture, but modest
deep-layer shear. The lake breeze, localized convergence zones and
outflow boundaries will also be influences. The combination of
large-scale lift ahead of the Ontario shortwave trough with boundary
layer heating will steepen low/middle-level lapse rates favorably,
contributing to MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range south of the
Superior lake-breeze front. Isolated instances of severe hail/wind
will be possible as storms develop south-southeastward.

...Arkansas/ArkLaMiss...
Scattered thunderstorms should redevelop through the afternoon into
evening particularly on the western/southern periphery of the
lingering convective complex over the ArkLaMiss vicinity at late
morning. Locally damaging downbursts of water-loaded cores will be
the main concern from a severe-weather perspective. An outflow/differential-heating zone related to the decaying overnight
convection -- and oriented with a substantial component parallel to
the northwesterly midlevel flow vectors, should provide most of the
early focus for this redevelopment. Diurnal heating of a very moist
boundary layer -- with surface dew points in the 70s F and PW near 2
inches -- will foster peak MLCAPE in the 2500-3500 J/kg range, in a
very deep troposphere. Weak vertical shear will tend to limit
organization to pulse characteristics with multicell modes, although
a few transient supercells could occur with storms interacting with
the outflow/differential heating boundary.

...West/southwest Texas...
A few late-afternoon thunderstorms again are possible over higher
terrain of the Davis Mountains/Big Bend area, and more
conditionally, the adjoining segment of the dryline, offering
locally strong-severe gusts and hail. Strong capping will make
convective development more improbable with northward and eastward
extent. The lack of more-robust deep-layer winds (and of stronger
vertical shear) should keep convection multicellular in character
and slow-moving, remaining close to its genesis area. Hot, deep,
well-mixed boundary layers will contribute to strong wind gust
potential aside from some hail risk.

...Carolinas...
A weak mid-level wave and somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies
should influence storm development and organization to a degree this
afternoon within a moist/unstable air mass. Some of the stronger
storms may produce wet microbursts capable of locally damaging
winds.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 06/10/2021

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 151936
SWODY1
SPC AC 151934

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. today.

...Discussion...

Only minor adjustments have been made to previous forecast which
still appears on track.

..Dial.. 10/15/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020/

No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible later today over four areas.

1) Eastern MT into the western Dakotas this afternoon and evening,
ahead of a fast-moving shortwave trough tracking out of southern
Canada.

2) Southeast TX and southwest LA, behind a cold front surging
southward into the Gulf of Mexico.

3) South FL this afternoon where a moist but weakly sheared
environment is present.

4) Portions of The GA/SC/NC where weak low-level warm advection and
lift will aid in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 021925
SWODY1
SPC AC 021923

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...20z Update...

Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough
ejecting northeast across eastern NY. Isolated thunderstorm
potential is primarily ahead of this feature, thus the 10% thunder
line has been adjusted to account for this movement.

No changes warranted regarding the potential for thunderstorms
across south FL.

..Darrow.. 10/02/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020/

A generally quiet convective day is forecast across most of the
contiguous United States. Isolated lake-effect showers and
thunderstorms will continue to affect portions of northern NY and
possibly northern VT this afternoon and evening. Other scattered
thunderstorms are possible later today over parts of south FL. No
severe storms are expected.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 031252
SWODY1
SPC AC 031250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today nor tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
Mean ridging in the West, and troughing in the East, will continue
to dominate the CONUS upper-air pattern through this period. A
series of somewhat closely spaced shortwaves -- now located across
the central/northern Plains and Upper Midwest -- will dig into the
mean trough position from the upper Great Lakes to the lower
Mississippi Valley and northern Gulf, sharpening the cyclonic
curvature of the basal height/flow field through tonight.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a quasistationary front across
south FL, extending east-northeastward over the northern Bahamas and west-southwestward across the southeastern Gulf. This boundary --
both surface and in low levels through around 850 mb -- should drift
northward through the period and become more shallow in vertical
slope. Episodic, patchy areas of convection, with occasional
embedded thunderstorms, will occur in the low-level frontal zone and
southward through the Straits.

Elsewhere, a low was drawn between FRI-BIE, with weak cold front
southwestward across northwestern OK, the TX Panhandle and
northeastern NM. The low should move to south-central/central MO by
00Z, with front across southeastern/south-central OK, west-central
TX and southeastern NM. By 12Z the front should reach southern IL,
central AR, and portions of central/southwest TX. Moisture return
ahead of this front will be meager, with surface dew points
generally 40s to low 50s F, and an EML evident in the 12Z MAF RAOB
advecting over the region to cap the prefrontal warm sector.
Isolated thunder may occur in elevated convection today over MO
under cooler air aloft, northeast of the EML, and/or this evening
through tonight from the Ozarks to the Red River region.

..Edwards.. 10/03/2020

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 281949
SWODY1
SPC AC 281947

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe
gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will
continue to shift eastward across east Texas and the lower
Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of
Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight.

...20Z Update...
Severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of central into
East Texas as well as portions of Arkansas/western Tennessee. These
areas have been impacted by earlier convection and further
destabilization does not appear likely. The remainder of the
outlook, the Moderate risk area in particular, is unchanged. The
corridor of greatest concern appears to be from portions of central
Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints
are in place and the potential for discrete/semi-discrete storms
should be maximized here later this afternoon/evening as the
mid-level jet moves overhead and the low-level jet strengthens.

..Wendt.. 12/28/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/

...East TX to AL/GA...
A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet
max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become
negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this
evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to
lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of
LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening
across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This
will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE
values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant
severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing
structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS.

The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the
low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the
evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon
through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an
upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT
after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked
tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region,
with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms.

Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less
low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat.
Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential
and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 081245
SWODY1
SPC AC 081244

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across
parts of the Ohio Valley today.

...Ohio Valley...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently extends from western ND southwestward through western/central WY. This shortwave is expected
to progress quickly eastward throughout the day, moving across the
Great Lakes and reaching the Northeast by early tomorrow. In
response, the surface low currently over central OK is forecast to
rapidly translate northeastward through the Mid MS and OH Valleys,
moving along the leading edge of low-level moisture advection.
Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector
preceding this low will help moisten the low- to mid-levels enough
to support limited buoyancy, particularly as mid-level temperatures
cool. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be
augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and more mesoscale
lift near the surface low. The resulting combination of lift and
buoyancy should support deeper convective structures capable of
lightning production. Most likely time frame for these deeper storms
is between 21Z to 04Z, with the highest coverage anticipated over
the Middle and Upper OH Valley.

Strengthening mid-level flow is also expected, with a belt of 100+
kt 500-mb winds spreading across the region after 21Z. This could
result in rotation and potentially some hail production within any
deeper, more persistent updrafts. However, the scant buoyancy is
expected to limit the number and duration of any deeper updrafts,
with the overall severe potential remaining low as a result.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/08/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 091250
SWODY1
SPC AC 091248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across
the Mid-South region.

...Synopsis...
Broadly cyclonic flow aloft, with several embedded shortwave
troughs, is expected across the northern CONUS today. Largely zonal
flow is anticipated across the southern CONUS, with negligible
height changes. Recent surface analysis shows an expansive area of
high pressure associated with a dry, continental airmass covering
much of the central and eastern CONUS. A weak frontal boundary is in
place from the TX Coastal Plains northeastward across the Southeast
States into NC, between the cooler and dry airmass to its north and
the modified Gulf airmass to its south. A slow southward progression
of this front is anticipated throughout the day, with this front
likely extending from southern GA westward along the Gulf Coast into
South TX by 12Z Monday.

...Arklatex into the Mid-South...
Modest warm-air advection across the frontal zone mentioned in the
synopsis is contributing to showers and isolated thunderstorms
across Arkansas this morning. 12Z LZK sounding sampled the airmass
supporting these showers and thunderstorms well, with a notable warm
nose contributing to scant elevated buoyancy above about 850 mb. The
warm-air advection is expected to persist over the region for at
least the next several hours, while it gradually shifts eastward and
weakens. This will support the potential for isolated thunderstorms
this morning from the Arklatex eastward into the Mid-South, with the
overall thunderstorm potential diminishing with eastern extent.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/09/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 101247
SWODY1
SPC AC 101245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across
southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas tonight.

...TX/OK/AR...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough off
the southern CA/Baja CA coast. This feature is forecast to progress
quickly east-northeastward throughout the day, traversing the Southwest/northern Mexico and reaching the southern Plains by
tomorrow morning. Airmass ahead of this feature across the southern
Plains is currently cool and dry, with the moist airmass still
offshore. Mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave will lead
to some modest airmass modification, with upper 50s/low 60s surface
dewpoints potentially reaching the TX Hill Country/central TX by
tomorrow morning. Even with these moistening low levels, warm
mid-level temperatures will preclude buoyancy and deep convection
across much of the TX Coastal Plain.

Greater thunderstorm potential is anticipated farther north in
corridor from the Edwards Plateau into southeast OK and western AR
about 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Here,
aforementioned mass response and associated strengthening of the
low-level southwesterly flow will lead to moderate to strong
low-level warm-air advection and the development of modest elevated
buoyancy (generally above 800-750 mb). Isolated thunderstorms will
be possible as early as this afternoon across southeastern OK and
western AR. Persistent warm-air advection will likely contribute to
a continued potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region
throughout the evening. This persistent warm-air advection will also
help support the development of modest buoyancy into TX as mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the approaching shortwave. Resulting
buoyancy combined with increasing large-scale ascent should result
in addition isolated thunderstorm development from north TX into the
Edwards Plateau, largely after 06Z. Limited buoyancy should keep the
severe potential low throughout the period.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/10/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 111248
SWODY1
SPC AC 111247

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern
Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Some strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas and the Lower
Mississippi Valley into southern Mississippi and central Alabama.

...Synopsis...
A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the
southern Plains today as the cyclonic flow aloft across the western
CONUS deepens. The first of these shortwaves is currently moving
through the southern High Plains while the second remains off the
coast of the northern Baja Peninsula. Both of those shortwaves are
expected to progress quickly eastward, with the lead wave reaching
the Mid-Atlantic by early Wednesday and the second shortwave
reaching central TX.

...Lower MS Valley into southern/central MS and AL...
As mentioned in the synopsis, the lead shortwave trough is currently
moving through the southern High Plains, with preceding warm-air
advection contributing to an expansive area of precipitation from
the TX Hill Country into the Mid-South. General expectation is that
this area of precipitation will gradually shift northeastward
throughout the day, remaining just ahead of the eastward-progressing
shortwave. Low-level moisture return ahead of the first wave will be
modest, particularly across TX where the modified Gulf moisture will
likely remain confined to the coastal plain. Farther east, greater
inland moisture advection is anticipated, with mid 60s dewpoints
advection through much of the Lower MS Valley by the early
afternoon. Lower 60s dewpoints are likely in the central portions of
MS and AL by the late afternoon/early evening.

Even with this low-level moisture advection, mid-level temperatures
will remain warm, keeping the overall buoyancy modest (i.e. MUCAPE
less than 1000 J/kg) across the region. In contrast to the modest
buoyancy, vertical shear will be quite strong, with effective bulk
shear over 50 kt from the Lower MS Valley into AL and MS during the
afternoon and evening. This strong vertical shear may be able to
compensate for the lower buoyancy, and there could be a window for a
few strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening along and ahead
of the cold front from southern MS into southern and central AL.
Primary risk would be damaging wind gusts, but enough low-level
shear exists for a low-probability tornado threat as well.

...Southern Plains late tonight...
Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will spread across the
southern High Plains and into west TX late tonight ahead of the
second shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis. Notable
moistening between 850 and 700 mb combined with mid-level cooling
will help support modest elevated buoyancy. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop across West TX tonight before then spreading eastward/northeastward into more of OK and north/central TX. Much of
this activity will be displaced well north/northwest of front and
greater low-level moisture. Some hail is possible, but updraft depth
and duration will be limited by weak buoyancy, and the current
expectation is for any hail to remain very isolated.

As these storms move east/southeast with time, some interaction
could occur with a warm front gradually moving northward into more
of southeast TX early Wednesday morning. Increased buoyancy as well
as enhanced mesoscale ascent in the vicinity of the front is
expected to result in greater thunderstorm depth and duration.
Vertical shear will remain strong as well, with all of these factors
supporting a greater severe potential across southeast TX and
adjacent far southwestern LA early Wednesday morning. Damaging gusts
and/or a brief tornado are the primary threats.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/11/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 131245
SWODY1
SPC AC 131243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida
Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of
California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats.

...Southeast...
Lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley
this morning, and is expected to continue northeastward through the
Northeast today. Primary surface low associated with this system is
over the Lower Great Lakes, but a secondary triple point low exists
farther south over west-central GA. A cold front extends
southwestward from this secondary low off the AL coast while a warm
front extends eastward into the SC Lowcountry before arcing
northeastward along the SC and NC coasts. Warm sector between these
two features is characterized by temperatures in the upper 60s/low
70s and dewpoints in the 60s. A convective line is currently
traversing this warm sector, extending from the MMT vicinity in
central SC southwestward to off the FL Panhandle Coast east of ECP.
Modest buoyancy precedes this line across the central FL Panhandle
and southwest/south-central GA, but weakens with northern extent,
with MLCAPE dropping to less than 250 J/kg over southeast GA. In
contrast to this modest buoyancy, strong deep-layer shear extends
across the warm sector, which is contributing to modest updraft
organization within the line and occasional bowing segments. Shear
is expected to weaken throughout the day as the parent shortwave
trough becomes increasingly displaced north and the mid/low level
flow weakens. As a result, the severe potential over this region
today will likely be maximized from now through the next 4 to 6
hours while some overlap between the modest buoyancy and strong
shear exists. A few strong to severe storms are possible,
particularly where the line interacts with the warm front. Damaging
gusts will be the primary risk, but a brief line-embedded tornado is
possible as well.

...Central Valley of California...
Recent satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West
Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern
periphery towards central CA. This shortwave is forecast to reach
the coast later this afternoon, with the ongoing warm-air advection
shower activity moving to the east/south as it does. As these
showers clear out, temperatures should warm into the upper 50s/low
60s while mid-level cold-air advection results in 500-mb
temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range. This will support weak
airmass destabilization, with modest buoyancy anticipated during the
afternoon. This could result in some deeper, more sustained
convection. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support
transient rotation within any deeper updrafts, yielding a localized
wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/13/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 132053
SWODY1
SPC AC 131947

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
0147 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible in parts of the
Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are
the primary threats.

...Central Valley of California...
Satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast,
with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery
towards central CA. Clearing behind morning showers associated with
WAA has allowed surface temperatures to rise into the upper 50s,
with dew points reaching the low 50s. Upper level cold-air advection
will result in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range,
supporting weak airmass destabilization through this afternoon. With
favorable shear profiles, current expectations is for a few stronger
updrafts to take on transient supercell structures within the
Central Valley, with the threat for marginally damaging winds and
perhaps a brief tornado or two.

...Southeast...
The lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH
Valley this afternoon, and is expected to continue northeastward
through the Northeast into tonight. The surface low associated with
this system continues to progress northeastward into far northern
New England/southern Quebec. A cold front extends southwestward from
this low through the eastern seaboard and off the Florida Coast.
Although MUCAPE has approached 1500-2000 j/kg ahead of the front,
deep layer shear has continued to decrease as the strongest dynamics
continue to depart as the trough progresses further northeast, and
boundary parallel flow will likely suppress any significant updraft organization. In turn, midday convection has continued to weaken,
with additional weakening expected through the rest of the
afternoon. Have opted to drop the marginal risk across the Florida
panhandle. A few brief gusts of winds are still possible with any
stronger updrafts, but any severe threat remaining appears to be minute.

..15_ows.. 02/13/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 241231
SWODY1
SPC AC 241230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and
into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening.
Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated
strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into
southeast Washington.

...Far Southern FL and the FL Keys...
Shortwave trough currently progressing off the TX Coast is expected
to continue eastward across the Gulf today, reaching the FL
Peninsula by early tomorrow morning. Cold mid-level temperatures and strengthening mid-level flow that accompany this shortwave are
expected to spread over central/southern FL and the FL Keys after
03Z. An attendant surface low attendant will progress quickly
eastward just ahead of the parent shortwave. The general consensus
among the guidance is for this low to be just off the west-central
FL Coast around 00Z before continuing across the central FL
Peninsula and into the western Atlantic by 12Z Tuesday.

Moistening of the low-level airmass is expected ahead of the
shortwave trough and attendant surface low, particularly after 18Z.
Widespread showers throughout the day will likely mitigate buoyancy
somewhat, but little to no surface-based inhibition is expected
south of the warm front (which will extend eastward from the surface
low across the central FL Peninsula) from the late afternoon onward. Thunderstorm coverage should increase along and ahead of the front
as it gradually pushes eastward.

Dewpoints near 70s across south FL and the FL Keys will result in
stronger buoyancy and the potential for deeper, more long-lived
updrafts. Strong vertical shear over the region supports the
potential for a few supercells with an attendant risk for damaging
wind gusts and a brief tornado or two. The development of a
low-level convergence zone is possible, which could result in a
favored corridor for strong to severe storms. Currently, this zone
is expected to remain just off south FL Coast, but a few storms in
this area could impact the Keys.

...Interior Pacific Northwest...
Recent satellite imagery shows an intense shortwave trough off the
Pacific Northwest coast, moving quickly northeastward. This
shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward throughout the day,
reaching the coastal Pacific Northwest this afternoon and the
interior Pacific Northwest tonight. A frontal band, with occasional
lightning, is expected to develop along the leading edge of the
strong forcing for ascent associated with this system. Temperatures
could reach the upper 50s/low 60s ahead of this line in northeast
OR/southwest WA amid steep low-level lapse rates and modest
buoyancy. As such, the overall environment supports the potential
for strong downbursts within the line as it moves across the region.

...Eastern Dakotas into the Mid MS Valley...
The low-amplitude shortwave trough currently moving through MT is
expected to continue southeastward today, moving across the northern
Plains and IA before ending the period over IL. A compact but strong
jet streak will accompany this shortwave, with 500-mb winds within
this streak from 90 to 100 kt. The downstream airmass will be dry,
and strong heating/mixing will help push afternoon temperatures into
the upper 50s and low 60s. Despite dry low levels, some modest
buoyancy is possible amid the deep mixing and cold mid-level
temperatures. Consequently, a few shallow thunderstorms are possible
as the strong forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave
interacts with this limited buoyancy. Small hail and strong outflow
is possible with these storms, but overall coverage is currently
expected to remain too isolated to introduce any probabilities.

..Mosier/Grams.. 02/24/2025

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