ACUS02 KWNS 041712
SWODY2
SPC AC 041710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from parts
of the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Wind
gusts and hail will be the primary hazards.

...Central Gulf Coast/Southern Georgia...
A shortwave trough will move to the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday as
another shortwave trough moves across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward
across the central Gulf Coast States. Thunderstorms may be ongoing
along parts of the front at the start of the period. Convective
coverage is expected to expand during the morning as surface
temperatures warm. By midday, a line of strong thunderstorms is
forecast along and just ahead of the front from far southeast
Louisiana east-northeastward into southwest Georgia. Steep low-level
lapse rates and veered low-level flow of about 30 kt will aid a
marginal wind damage threat. The threat should continue through the
afternoon as the line moves slowly south-southeastward across the
central Gulf Coast and southern Georgia. Hail will also be possible
with the stronger cells.

...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
A shortwave trough will move across the southern and central
Appalachians during the morning on Wednesday. Thunderstorm
development may take place near a surface trough located from the
Mid-Atlantic southward into eastern North Carolina. Although
instability will be weak, 850 mb winds of 35 to 45 kt along with
steep low-level lapse rates may be enough for a marginal wind damage
threat. A second shortwave trough will move into the region during
the mid to late afternoon. An associated cold front will advance
southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Thunderstorm
development will be possible near the front during the mid to late
afternoon. Instability will again be weak but low-level lapse rates
should be steep enough for a marginal wind damage threat. Hail may
also occur with the stronger thunderstorms.

..Broyles.. 05/04/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 051647
SWODY2
SPC AC 051645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Wed May 05 2021

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF FLORIDA...AND PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms are expected across parts of northern Florida
southward along the Atlantic coast of the Peninsula, as well as
across parts of the middle Mississippi Valley vicinity on Thursday.
Hail and strong gusts will be the main hazards with these storms.

...Florida...

A cold front will sag southward from southern GA into central FL
during the forecast period. A seasonally moist airmass, with
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will be in place across FL,
and will support moderate to strong destabilization with MLCAPE
values around 1500-2500 J/kg forecast. Deep layer west/southwesterly
flow will be relatively weak, especially with southward extent
across the Peninsula, and little frontal convergence is expected
given veered low level winds. Nevertheless, scattered thunderstorms
are expected as the upper trough pivots eastward through the period.
The combination of moderate/strong instability and high PW values
could result in strong gusts with briefly organized cells, though
weak shear and poor mid-level lapse rates should limit greater
severe potential.

...Middle Mississippi Valley vicinity...

A shortwave impulse rotating through a larger-scale trough over the
eastern U.S. will aid in thunderstorm development in northwesterly
mid/upper flow across the region. At the surface, boundary layer
moisture will remain modest, with dewpoints generally in the upper
40s to low 50s. Nevertheless, weak instability (around 500-750 J/kg
MLCAPE) is forecast as a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates (7-8
C/km) overspreads the region. Moderate midlevel flow with 30-40 kt northwesterly winds between 850-700 mb and effective shear around
25-30 kt should allow for a few organized cells. Elongated
hodographs and inverted-v low level thermodynamic profiles below
around 850 mb will further support clusters of storms capable of
strong gusts and hail ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front
during the afternoon/evening.

..Leitman.. 05/05/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 091727
SWODY2
SPC AC 091726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Wed Jun 09 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely Thursday afternoon and evening
over portions of the northern High Plains and northern Plains. All
severe hazards are possible, including very large hail, 70+ mph
wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging is forecast to be in place from northern Mexico north-northeastward across the Great Plains early Thursday morning.
This upper ridging is expected to then dampen throughout the day as
a strong shortwave trough, initially over the western Great Basin,
progresses northeastward through the northern/central Rockies and
eventually through the northern High Plains. This shortwave will
likely become increasingly negatively tilted throughout this
progression while the stronger mid-level flow attendant to the
system also spreading into the northern High Plains/northern Plains.
Strong buoyancy will exist within the air mass over the northern
High Plains/northern Plains ahead of this shortwave, contributing to
the risk for severe thunderstorms (discussed in more detail below).

Farther east, broad but weak upper troughing will likely persist as
a weak embedded upper low drifts slowly eastward across the TN and
middle OH Valleys. The air mass in vicinity and downstream of this
upper low will be moist and at least marginally unstable,
contributing to the potential for numerous thunderstorms across much
of the OH and TV Valleys, northern portions of the Southeast, and
much of the Mid-Atlantic.

Elsewhere, an unstable air mass may interact with an east-west
oriented boundary across MN and WI east of the upper ridge, with a
few strong storms possible.

...Northern High Plains into the Northern/Central Plains...
Ample low-level moisture is expected to be in place early Thursday
morning ahead of the shortwave trough (and any associated surface
features) mentioned in the synopsis. Deep mixing is anticipated
throughout the day, but persistent and strong low-level moisture
advection should keep dewpoints in the 60s. Less mixing along the
warm front could lead to a corridor of upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints
central ND into far northeast MT by Thursday afternoon.

Surface low is forecast to deepen over southeast MT. Low-level
convergence along the lee trough extending southward from this low
as well as near the low itself is expected to result in convective
initiation once the air mass destabilizes during the late afternoon. Large-scale ascent will also be increasing during this time, aiding
this convective initiation. The deeply mixed, strongly unstable, and
moderately sheared environment will support initial supercells
capable of all severe hazards, including giant hail and strong wind
gusts. Backed low-level winds in vicinity of the surface low may
result in a locally greater tornado threat near the MT/ND/SD border intersection.

Upscale growth into one or more convective lines is anticipated soon
after the initially discrete mode. The downstream air mass across
the northern and central Plains will be very supportive of continued
eastward progression, with severe wind gusts possible throughout the
evening across much of ND, SD, and NE.

...East-Central MN into Northern WI and western Upper MI...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon along a
weak surface boundary extended across the region. Mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints will result in ample instability, which may support a few
strong updrafts during near peak heating. Given the abundant
moisture in place, a few water-loaded downbursts could occur with
the strongest storms.

..Mosier.. 06/09/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 101725
SWODY2
SPC AC 101723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST
IOWA ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday from southwest Iowa
across much of eastern Kansas and into northern Oklahoma.

...Central/Southern Plains...
Upper ridging is forecast to extend from northern Mexico
northeastward through the Upper Midwest early Friday morning. A
compact, negatively titled shortwave trough will move across ND into
southern Manitoba along the northwestern periphery of the upper
ridging, contributing to some modest dampening. This shortwave is
expected to force the development of a well-organized convective
line over the northern Plains late Thursday evening.

This line is then forecast to progress eastward/southeastward
overnight. Its location early Friday morning will depend on the
speed of its forward progression overnight Thursday, which is tied
to numerous low-predictability factors regulating MCS maintenance
(including rear-inflow jet strength and cold pool/vertical shear
balance). Given this low predictability, 5-percent severe
probabilities will be maintained and expanded for this outlook.
However, the very moist and unstable air mass expected to be in
place ahead of the outflow will support strong updrafts, and the
potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. As such, upgrades
will likely be needed in future outlooks once the location of the
storm outflow becomes more certain.

...Middle/Upper OH and TN Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic and
Southeast...
A broad and relatively weak shortwave trough is also expected to
move from the middle OH Valley eastward/southeastward into the
Mid-Atlantic. The air mass in the vicinity and downstream of this
shortwave will be very moist and modestly buoyancy, resulting
widespread thunderstorm development across from the middle/upper OH
and TN Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic and much of the Southeast. Weak
shear will likely preclude much updraft organization, resulting in a predominately multicellular, outflow-dominant storm mode. Even so,
some forward-propagating line segments may exist for a
short-duration. Additionally, the very moist air mass will
contribute to the risk of water-loaded downbursts. The
isolated/brief nature of these threats and their reliance on more
mesoscale processes (such as storm mergers and outflow boundaries)
for development precludes adding severe probabilities with this
outlook. However, one or more small areas may be needed in later
outlooks.

..Mosier.. 06/10/2021

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 280603
SWODY2
SPC AC 280602

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND FROM THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible from southern Kansas into
northern Oklahoma and Arkansas Saturday afternoon and evening with
damaging wind and large hail the main threats. A modest risk for a
few strong to severe storms will exist from the Carolinas into the
Middle Atlantic during the day with damaging wind gusts and a few
tornadoes possible.

...Southern Kansas, Northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas...

A cold front will advance southward into OK and the TX Panhandle
Saturday where the atmosphere will likely become moderately to
strongly unstable in warm sector. Current indications are that
elevated storms will probably be in progress north of the boundary
across KS Saturday morning. Several CAMs as well as NAM and ECWMF
depict an MCS and associated MCV across southern KS early in the
period, and this activity will shift east southeast over top of a
low-amplitude synoptic ridge during the day. Potential will exist
for additional storms to develop across southern KS into northern OK
as the shortwave trough advances east and interacts with the front
and destabilizing boundary layer. Stronger flow/vertical shear will
accompany the shortwave trough, and storms will have the potential
to organize. A low-level jet will likely strengthen during the
evening in association with this mesoscale system and help to
sustain an organized MCS into the lower MS Valley region into the
overnight. Damaging wind and hail will be the main threats.

Other more isolated strong to severe storms may develop farther west
in the post-frontal upslope region across the higher terrain of CO
and spread east into High Plains during the late afternoon and
evening. A few instances of large hail and damaging wind will be the
main threats.

...Carolinas through the Middle Atlantic...

Remnants of Laura are forecast to accelerate through the southern
Appalachians and Carolinas to southern Middle Atlantic regions on
Saturday as the system becomes absorbed within belt of westerlies.
Laura should become loosely phased with a progressive
northern-stream trough that will move through the Great Lakes and
Northeast States. The accompanying cold front should extend from a
surface low over the lower Great Lakes southwestward into the Ohio
Valley early in the day. The front will continue into the Northeast
States and Middle Atlantic during the mid to late afternoon. Rich
tropical moisture will reside in pre-frontal warm sector, but weak
lapse rates and potential for widespread clouds will likely result
in marginal instability. The stronger low-level wind fields and
largest hodographs accompanying Laura should spread through NC and
southern VA based on latest guidance, but the system will continue
to undergo a weakening trend. Latest satellite imagery show Laura is transitioning to a hybrid system and is entraining dry air in the
mid-upper levels. This transition might allow for greater diabatic
heating and destabilization of the boundary layer across parts of NC
and VA where tornado threat will be greatest, but conditional upon
sufficient low-level destabilization.

Farther north into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast States, low-level
hodographs will be smaller, but the kinematic environment might be
sufficient for a threat of locally strong wind gusts with storms
developing along and ahead of the advancing cold front. Threat in
this region is also conditional upon sufficient boundary layer
destabilization, which remains uncertain given potential for
widespread clouds and areas of ongoing precipitation.

..Dial.. 08/28/2020

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 151705
SWODY2
SPC AC 151703

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States on Friday.

...Discussion...

A few thunderstorms are possible Friday mainly from the eastern
Carolinas as well as south FL in association with a cold front. A
few low-topped thunderstorms might also occur over a portion of the
upper Great Lakes Friday afternoon in association with weak
instability resulting from cold temperatures aloft and ascent
attending a progressive vorticity maximum embedded within a synoptic
upper trough.

..Dial.. 10/15/2020

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 021750
SWODY2
SPC AC 021748

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Saturday.

...Discussion...

Upper ridge will hold over the southwestern US while troughing
remains the predominant feature east of the Rockies. As a result, higher-quality moisture/buoyancy have been shunted into the
southeast Gulf basin, extending across the FL Peninsula. While lapse
rates will remain poor across this region, an elongated corridor of
low-level confluence will persist across the southern Peninsula
which will likely focus convection through the period.

Farther west, a secondary mid-level short-wave trough will dig
southeast across the Great Plains to a position from eastern
KS/central OK by 04/06z. This feature will encourage weak convection
along/just north of a surface front as it sags southeast across
KS/OK into MO/AR region. A narrow zone of stronger boundary-layer
heating should be noted ahead of the front from northwest TX into
south-central OK. While low-level lapse rates will steepen along
this corridor, forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures
may not be breached. For this reason, frontal lift should result in
more elevated updrafts.

..Darrow.. 10/02/2020

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 030436
SWODY2
SPC AC 030435

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will
persist within the westerlies across the northern mid-latitude
eastern Pacific into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest,
with general troughing east of the Rockies. However, inland of the
Pacific coast, flow may continue to trend a bit more zonal.

At least a pair of short wave perturbations, comprising initially
amplified mid-level troughing across the Upper Midwest into the
lower Missouri Valley and Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period,
are forecast to trend out of phase Sunday through Sunday night. It
appears that the most significant of these will accelerate
east-northeastward across the lower Ohio Valley, toward northern Mid
Atlantic coastal areas. As it approaches the coast late Sunday
night, associated forcing may contribute to surface wave development
along a frontal zone offshore.

Seasonably high precipitable water will remain confined to a narrow
plume along the frontal zone, extending southwestward across the
Florida Peninsula into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered
thunderstorm activity appears most probable near the Gulf Stream and
across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, with potential for
appreciable boundary-layer destabilization inland of Florida coastal
areas remaining a bit more unclear.

Otherwise, some scattered, weak thunderstorm activity appears
possible late Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of
central/eastern Ohio and adjacent portions of the Ohio Valley, where
the mid-level cold pool associated with the vigorous short wave
trough may overspread a corridor of stronger daytime heating.

..Kerr.. 10/03/2020

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 090636
SWODY2
SPC AC 090635

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into
central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather
potential is low.

...Synopsis...
Zonal flow east of the Divide will generally shift eastward Monday.
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will lift northeastward through
northern Mexico into West/Central Texas by Tuesday morning. At the
surface, a cold front initially near the Gulf Coast will likely move
slowly northward in response to the approaching trough. Modest
mid-level ascent and weak low-level warm advection will occur late
in the period from the Edwards Plateau into northeast Texas. As
scattered showers develop overnight Monday, a few embedded
thunderstorms may occur given the weak elevated buoyancy present.
Though shear will be strong, the poor thermodynamic environment will
keep potential for severe weather quite low.

..Wendt.. 02/09/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 100630
SWODY2
SPC AC 100628

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern
Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather
is not currently anticipated.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper-level troughing is expected to evolve over much of the
West on Tuesday. A shortwave perturbation is expected to eject into
the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the
surface, a cold front should extend from the southern High Plains
into central Texas before arcing northeastward along the upper Texas
Gulf Coast and into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley...
Precipitation is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday morning. Most of
this activity will be occurring on the cool side of the boundary.
This should reinforce the front, though some modest northward
progression of warmer, moist air may occur within the coastal plain
regions. Potential for surface-based storms south of the boundary in
southeast Texas/Sabine Valley vicinity appears low as the low-level
jet will weaken during the morning/afternoon and mid-level ascent
will be weak. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate poor lapse
rates in the column and warm layers that will inhibit updraft
intensity. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, additional
isolated to scattered storms are possible from the Edwards Plateau
into Central/Northeast Texas as mid-level forcing and 850 mb warm
advection increases. Again, these storms will be elevated on the
cool side of the boundary. The strongest of these storms could
produce small hail. The overall severe threat appears too
isolated/uncertain for unconditional probabilities.

..Wendt.. 02/10/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 110639
SWODY2
SPC AC 110638

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough pivoting through the southern High Plains will
begin to intensify by Wednesday afternoon as it approaches the
mid-Mississippi Valley. A surface cyclone will evolve along a
southward-surging cold front in the southern Plains. The surface low
will deepen more substantially by late afternoon in the
mid-Mississippi Valley as it moves quickly north and east. Richer
Gulf moisture will return into the Southeast and may reach as far
north as portions of Tennessee. The cold front will sweep through
the Southeast beginning in the late afternoon and into Thursday
morning.

...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast States...
Warm advection precipitation will likely be ongoing along the
surface boundary Wednesday morning. Models vary on the spatial
extent of precipitation with the ECMWF generally showing less
clearing during the afternoon than other models. Available CAM
guidance also shows similar variability. In terms of environment,
low/mid 60s F dewpoints should reach through much of
Alabama/Mississippi. Upper 60s F dewpoints are expected in southern Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama, but could potentially push as far
north as central Mississippi/Alabama as strong advection continues
into the evening. Effective shear of 50-60 kts will favor organized storms/bowing segments. This shear will initially be roughly
parallel to the front, but, as the front surges southeast, shear
vectors will have a greater cross-boundary component. Strong
low-level shear will also be in place with a 45-55 kt low-level jet
moving from Louisiana during the morning into Mississippi/Alabama
during the afternoon.

The current expectation is for morning storms near the Sabine Valley
to gradually intensify as they move northeast into a modestly
destabilizing boundary-layer. How these storms evolve is uncertain.
Damaging winds are a likely hazard, but, depending on storm mode and
the degree of heating in Mississippi, could also pose a similar risk
for tornadoes. Storms along the front are not likely to make much
progress southeastward until the late afternoon. As the front moves,
convective transport of the strong wind fields will promote damaging
winds and strong low-level shear will bring a risk for embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes. Discrete development ahead of the front
during the evening is possible given strong theta-e advection and
weak capping, but synoptic ascent will be displaced north which
reduces confidence in that scenario. Surface-based storms become
much less likely into Tennessee and Georgia.

..Wendt.. 02/11/2025

$$
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