WTIN20 DEMS 150655
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 15.10.2020

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
15.10.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 15.10.2020 .

BAY OF BENGAL:

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL &
SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER
NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER REST OF BAY OF
BENGAL & NORTH ANDAMAN SEA.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER CENTRAL BOB AROUND
19TH OCTOBER.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
HRS:

24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL


ARABIAN SEA:

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO
VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTHEAST ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA OFF SOUTH GUJARAT-MAHARASHTRA COASTS & GULF OF CAMBAY.
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED WAEK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING
NEXT 120 HRS :

24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL LOW HIGH HIGH HIGH

REMARKS:

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 5
WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL REMAIN IN PHASE 5 FOR NEXT 6
DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. THUS MJO WILL SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE THE BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) FOR NEXT 5
DAYS. CONSIDERING THE SEA CONDITIONS, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) IS 29- 30\U02DAC OVER ENTIRE BOB AND OVER ANDAMAN SEA. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS 80-90 KJ/CM2 OVER MAJOR PARTS OF
SOUTH & CENTRAL BOB AND ANDAMAN SEA. IT IS DECREASING BECOMING
ABOUT 40-50 KJ/CM2 OVER THE ARABIAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 55OE.

CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, POSITIVE VORTICITY OF THE
ORDER OF 50-70X10-6SEC-1 PREVAILS AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER SOUTH MAHARASHTRA AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA OFF
SOUTH MAHARASHTRA COAST, 30-50X10-6SEC-1 OVER WESTCENTRALARABIANSEA
AND ALSO OVER WEST CENTRAL BOB WITH VERTICAL EXTENSION UPTO 500 HPA
LEVEL. FEEBLE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF ABOUT 05X10-5SEC-1 PREVAILS
OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL BOB AND ALOS OVER SOUT AND ADJOINING
EASTCENTRAL AS. AN ELONGATED AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OF
ABOUT 10-20X10-5SEC-1 PREVAILS OVER CENTRAL BOB TO ANDAMANSEA AND
ALSO OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND ALONG
& OFF MAHARASHTRA-GUJARAT COASTS. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
IS HIGH (30-40 KTS) OVER SOUTH & CENTRAL BOB AND ALSO OVER THE
ENTIRE AS . THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES NEAR 230N ACROSS
INDIAN SUB-CONTINENT.

MOST OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF DEPRESSION ON 17TH
OCTOBER, 2020 OVER EASTCETRAL & ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF
NORTH MAHARASHTRA-SOUTH GUJRAT COASTS. THE GENESIS POTENTIAL
PARAMETER (GPP) INDEX IS INDICATING POTENTIAL ZONE FOR CYCLOGENESIS
ON 17TH OVER EASTCENTRAL BOB AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA WITH WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS MOVEMENT TOWARDS CENTRAL BOB TILL 20TH OCTOBER.

IT MAY BE INFERRED THAT THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WOULD
EMERGE INTO ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAY CONCENTRATE
INTO A DEPRESSION OVER EAST-CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AAND ADJOINING
NORTHEAST ARBAN SEA OFF NORTH MAHARASHRA \U2013 SOUTH GUJARAT
COASTS DURING NEXT 48 HOURS .=
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)