TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 150730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/150730Z-160600ZOCT2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140751ZOCT2020//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150651ZOCT2020//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 14OCT20 0600Z, TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.2N 106.5E, APPROXIMATELY 59 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM,
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN33 PGTW 140900) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 118.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 118.4E, APPROXIMATELY
154 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST. A 150108Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS A TIGHT CIRCULATION
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER CONVERGENT AREA WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 20 TO
25 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST. 94W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH GENERALLY STRAIGHT-LINE FLOW PROVIDED MODERATE
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST,
ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 150700) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) WITH TCFA
REISSUE.//
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ABPW10 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/020600Z-030600ZOCT2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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ABPW10 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/030900Z-040600ZOCT2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
21.0N 140.5E, APPROXIMATELY 112 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB,
JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
BROAD, DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. FORMATIVE BANDING HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS AS THE CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED AND CONTINUED TO
BUILD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON A 030658Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. A 030040Z ASCAT-C PASS FURTHER
DEPICTS A VERY BROAD WIND FIELD IN EXCESS OF 100 NM DIAMETER. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, VERY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND WELL ESTABLISHED POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IS TRACKS
GENERALLY NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1. B. (1) AS LOW.//
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